Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.4 | 9.4% | 26 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 3.0 | 13.7% | 38 | 0.28% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 4.0 | 18.8% | 52 | 0.25% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 3.6 | 17% | 47 | 0.35% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 2.3 | 10.5% | 29 | 0.28% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 2.6 | 11.6% | 32 | 0.25% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 1.6 | 7.6% | 21 | 0.18% |
| 70+ | 9 | 2.3 | 11.6% | 32 | 0.31% |
| All ages | 26 | 21.7 | 100% | 277 | 0.26% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18 | 29620 | 221673 | 688 | 177 | 439 |
| Feb 19 | 29638 | 221818 | 688 | 177 | 415 |
| Feb 20 | 29648 | 222022 | 689 | 177 | 347 |
| Feb 21 | 29676 | 222201 | 690 | 177 | 294 |
| Feb 22 | 29701 | 222554 | 690 | 177 | 303 |
| Feb 23 | 29721 | 222868 | 691 | 177 | 295 |
| Feb 24 | 29747 | 222996 | 691 | 177 | 277 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18 | 18403 | 147837 | 678 | 175 | 213 |
| Feb 19 | 18410 | 147912 | 679 | 175 | 185 |
| Feb 20 | 18416 | 148074 | 680 | 175 | 160 |
| Feb 21 | 18425 | 148200 | 680 | 175 | 146 |
| Feb 22 | 18441 | 148404 | 680 | 175 | 147 |
| Feb 23 | 18453 | 148626 | 680 | 175 | 145 |
| Feb 24 | 18466 | 148688 | 682 | 175 | 141 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.7 | 8.5% | 12 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 0.6 | 5% | 7 | 0.08% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.6 | 14.2% | 20 | 0.28% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 2.4 | 20.6% | 29 | 0.35% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 1.7 | 14.9% | 21 | 0.27% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.0 | 8.5% | 12 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.4 | 10.6% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.7 | 17.7% | 25 | 0.35% |
| All ages | 13 | 12.1 | 100% | 141 | 0.22% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18 | 13274 | 86743 | 525 | 138 | 146 |
| Feb 19 | 13282 | 86784 | 525 | 138 | 137 |
| Feb 20 | 13288 | 86904 | 525 | 138 | 116 |
| Feb 21 | 13302 | 86968 | 526 | 138 | 118 |
| Feb 22 | 13310 | 87143 | 527 | 138 | 112 |
| Feb 23 | 13317 | 87219 | 527 | 138 | 112 |
| Feb 24 | 13322 | 87263 | 528 | 138 | 106 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 9.4% | 10 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.4 | 7.5% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.9 | 8.5% | 9 | 0.2% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.7 | 17% | 18 | 0.33% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.3 | 16% | 17 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.1 | 15.1% | 16 | 0.24% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.0 | 10.4% | 11 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.7 | 16% | 17 | 0.27% |
| All ages | 5 | 7.7 | 100% | 106 | 0.23% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18 | 33902 | 298866 | 999 | 163 | 517 |
| Feb 19 | 33913 | 299000 | 1000 | 163 | 428 |
| Feb 20 | 33927 | 299238 | 1000 | 163 | 372 |
| Feb 21 | 33969 | 299559 | 1001 | 163 | 352 |
| Feb 22 | 33993 | 299914 | 1001 | 163 | 328 |
| Feb 23 | 34030 | 300171 | 1001 | 163 | 339 |
| Feb 24 | 34055 | 300350 | 1001 | 163 | 313 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.4 | 10.5% | 33 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 2.6 | 11.2% | 35 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 4.7 | 17.6% | 55 | 0.26% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 3.9 | 19.5% | 61 | 0.45% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 3.9 | 13.1% | 41 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.0 | 8.9% | 28 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.6 | 10.9% | 34 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 4 | 2.6 | 8.3% | 26 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 25 | 25.6 | 100% | 313 | 0.26% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18 | 121223 | 2339609 | 2534 | 484 | 2341 |
| Feb 19 | 121323 | 2341619 | 2535 | 484 | 2045 |
| Feb 20 | 121390 | 2342629 | 2537 | 484 | 1752 |
| Feb 21 | 121513 | 2344436 | 2539 | 484 | 1588 |
| Feb 22 | 121641 | 2346952 | 2543 | 484 | 1509 |
| Feb 23 | 121744 | 2349267 | 2543 | 484 | 1508 |
| Feb 24 | 121841 | 2351256 | 2543 | 484 | 1431 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 19.1 | 17.4% | 249 | 0.41% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 13.0 | 13.8% | 198 | 0.28% |
| 20-29 | 22 | 20.4 | 19.4% | 278 | 0.27% |
| 30-39 | 22 | 19.1 | 17.6% | 252 | 0.33% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 13.1 | 11.1% | 159 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 9.4 | 8% | 114 | 0.17% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 8.9 | 6.6% | 95 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 2 | 8.6 | 5.9% | 85 | 0.17% |
| All ages | 97 | 111.9 | 100% | 1431 | 0.26% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18 | 1565396 | 13542013 | 61959 | 13232 | 17636 |
| Feb 19 | 1566107 | 13553950 | 61979 | 13238 | 15367 |
| Feb 20 | 1566571 | 13562763 | 62002 | 13241 | 13420 |
| Feb 21 | 1567557 | 13576160 | 62046 | 13247 | 12314 |
| Feb 22 | 1568701 | 13595482 | 62085 | 13251 | 12075 |
| Feb 23 | 1569645 | 13612664 | 62108 | 13256 | 12256 |
| Feb 24 | 1570460 | 13624059 | 62125 | 13256 | 11523 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 99 | 119.0 | 13.2% | 1518 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 84 | 92.7 | 11% | 1267 | 0.17% |
| 20-29 | 119 | 123.4 | 14% | 1613 | 0.21% |
| 30-39 | 146 | 145.0 | 16.4% | 1890 | 0.25% |
| 40-49 | 83 | 115.4 | 12.7% | 1462 | 0.21% |
| 50-59 | 121 | 107.4 | 11.8% | 1361 | 0.17% |
| 60-69 | 70 | 95.3 | 10.4% | 1193 | 0.16% |
| 70+ | 92 | 104.6 | 10.4% | 1204 | 0.19% |
| All ages | 815 | 904.1 | 100% | 11523 | 0.2% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-03-20 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 13893"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges